Notes on the 2022 NFT market for not ape projects


Eagle, CO

Last updated on Jan 5, 2022

Posted on Jan 5, 2022


Right now the NFT market is dominated and controlled by apes, and the ape related market. They are not, art people. They're males who identify as degen, who got their start in lock down. Some (most?) have created generational wealth.

In 2022 ape -- anything -- will continue to suck up the oxygen - witness the Jenkins project. The $APE token, if it's what I think it will be, will dominate the airwaves once it's released. This will lead to more ape derivatives, generate ape Twitter posts and commotion all day. Or in other words just when you thought there'd be ape exhaustion and openings for your project, it's the opposite. Apes will be brand new all over again.

The ape market isn't going to pay any attention to anything else until they have to. They're unlikely to spend their wealth on anything else other then the girl that brought them to the dance. Why should they? So the lionshare of this market, at least for now, isn't available.  

Yes, there are new people coming into NFTs. I don't believe they're art people either. They're here because they read about apes. So at least to start, their attention will be ape focused.

The new people only have so much disposable income, they aren't likely to ape in. But I do believe they're somewhat comfortable with risk. I'm guessing their risk tolerance is a few thousand $. So job #1 for the entrepreneur is product/market fit. Job 1a is keeping their attention.

I'm skeptical that the not-ape NFT market is big enough right now to produce the gains these new customers are looking for. Another ultra-important job for the entrepreneur is how to create lasting value for them. The same old same old from 2021 isn't going to work. Free swag and donations don't matter. Airdrops and collabs only matter if there's a long resale runway, which these new people have no idea about. Now what?

Growing anything tech related is always about out learning the competition and having an intimate understanding of the market. Then product market fit. Entrepreneurs must also have the skills and experience to compete for business and/or take business from the competition.

When I think about this problem I don't have a clear answer. But I am in love with the problem - because of the ginormous opportunity. One thought is to wait it out, wait for ape exhaustion. That could take awhile. It may never happen. In the mean time entrepreneurs should throw their hat in the ring.

There's answers, providing entrepreneurs are in love with the problem.

Here's to entrepreneurs falling in love with the problem.

Share on